Sat 15 Oct 2005
Andrew Kenny in The Spectator writes
Judged on sheer evil, the worst crime in history was brown, the Nazi genocide, although the reds slaughtered more people. The death toll (difficult to measure) is roughly, Hitler’s holocaust 6 million, Stalin’s famine and terror 8 million, and Mao’s famine 30 million. But the greens have topped them all. In a single crime they have killed about 50 million people. In purely numerical terms, it was the worst crime of the 20th century. It took place in the USA in 1972. It was the banning of DDT. …
In 1971 DDT was poised to rid the world of malaria. In 1972 it was banned. …
This was the time of Rachel Carson’s mendacious book Silent Spring, about the horrors of pesticides, when the newly emerging green ideology was looking for a cause célèbre. … The greens, leaning heavily on Ruckelshaus, were determined to ban it and did so, with catastrophic consequences for poor people with dark skins. Tens of millions of humans were sacrificed on the green altar.
The US extended the ban overseas by various measures, including refusing aid to countries that used DDT. Other rich countries, urged on by their greens, followed suit. Malaria, which had been in retreat, came surging back, killing multitudes.
In a review of Michael Crichton’s State of Fear Ron Bailey agrees with Crichton that the greens killed 50 million:
Along the way, Mr. Crichton makes vividly apparent how environmentalist misinformation costs lives and money. He has Kenner tell fatuous Hollywood environmentalist Ted Bradley (Martin Sheen?) that banning DDT was “arguably the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century.” Why? Because DDT was the best defense against malaria-carrying mosquitoes. “All together, the ban has caused more than 50 million needless deaths,” Kenner says. “Banning DDT killed more people than Hitler, Ted. And the environmental movement pushed hard for it.” True enough.
Junkscience has a death clock that puts the death toll even higher at 90 million deaths.
However, it
is conceivable that relying on a science fiction writer and an
astroturf web site
might not be wise. so I checked to see what the peer-reviewed
scientific literature. “Agricultural production and malaria
resurgence in Central America and India” published in
Nature by Chapin and Wasserstrom tells us what really happened. The graph on the
left shows that malaria did skyrocket in India in the 70s. But not
because they cut back on DDT spraying because of pressure from
environmentalists. The graph shows that they didn’t cut back on DDT,
but dramatically increased its use. So how come malaria increased?
Well, the increase in DDT use was in agriculture. This caused the
insects to become resistant, so they had to use more DDT to get the
same effect. This caused more resistance, so even more DDT was used
and so on. The end result was that in the areas where DDT was used in
agriculture, the mosquitoes became completely resistant and DDT no
longer stopped them from spreading malaria, with the disastrous
results shown in the graph.
Was this catastrophe predictable? Well, yes. In fact, Rachel Carson warned about it in Silent Spring. If India had followed the example of the United States and banned the agricultural use of DDT and reserved it for public health many millions of cases of malaria would have been prevented. However, India probably could not have afforded the more expensive alternative insecticides to DDT, so this may not have been feasible. But there were other alternatives that would have greatly reduced pesticide use and slowed the development of resistance. Chapin and Wasserstrom continue the story:
In response, entomologists developed what they call integrated pest management systems[85-86], the key to which lies in timing insecticide applications so that the crop is protected from predators only at the most vulnerable stages of its growth cycle. As it turns out, cotton buds destroyed by pests regrow throughout the plant’s life, so that producers can afford to sustain a high level of insect damage before there is a need to apply pesticides. Simple precautionary measures may also lower their chemical costs: up to 75 per cent of the hibernating boll weevil population may be eliminated by the ploughing under of crop debris after harvest. Thus many growers west of the Mississippi now spray their fields only seven or eight times each season instead of 25 or 30; similar measures have been developed for raising corn, rice and many kinds of fruit[87].
So why did WHO not urge cotton producing countries to employ integrated management systems that would not interfere with malaria eradication programmes? A possible answer may perhaps be found in the activities of another international agency, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Like WHO, FAO was established to provide technical advice and assistance to members of the United Nations. In the case of pesticides, which are manufactured and distributed by a few multinational corporations, FAO’s advice might have played a critical role in reducing environmental contamination. Both farmers and extension agents in developing nations must normally rely on pesticide company salesmen for information about how to use agricultural chemicals — much as physicians in Western countries rely upon pharmaceutical companies for information about new drugs. Beginning in 1967, therefore, FAO put together a small working group of experts on integrated pest management which published technical manuals and disseminated other information[88-94].
Three years later, it commissioned an American entomologist, Dr Louis Falcon, to develop an integrated system in Nicaragua, a system which achieved remarkable success within a few seasons. Similar programmes were subsequently undertaken in Mexico, Peru and Pakistan[95].
But FAO did not recommend these programs.
Why did FAO choose this course of action, which in retrospect does not appear to have been guided by an accurate appreciation of the perils of pesticide addiction? It is important to examine how pesticide manufacturers have influenced the policies of international agencies. As public concern about the effects of toxins like DDT began to grow in the 1960s, these corporations formed a trade association called GIFAP (Groupement International des Associations Nationales de Pesticides) which in turn worked directly with UN technicians through a FAO bureau known as the Industry Cooperative Programme (ICP). By the early 1970s joint FAO-ICP regional seminars had been organized in many parts of the world to promote new and better ways of distributing agricultural, pesticides. More important, high-level officials in WHO and FAO, who share the industry’s views on many major issues, invited GIFAP to play an active part in agency “consultations” and other internal meetings[98,99]. In this way, for example, no fewer than 25 corporate representatives lent their expertise to the meeting in Rome on pesticides in agriculture and public health and served on subcommittees responsible for formulating UN policy. Not surprisingly, these subcommittees stressed the need to apply more pesticides in a more effective manner rather than to limit their use or replace them with alternative forms of pest control. And what is more curious, none of these deliberations included representatives of other international constituencies such as environmental groups, labour unions or farmers’ organizations. Perhaps for these reasons, in June 1978, the current director general of FAO, Eduard Saoumi, finally expelled ICP from his agency[100].
So the people with significant responsibility for the resurgence in malaria were the chemical companies that stymied efforts to reduce the agricultural use of pesticides. And it was chemical companies that helped set up the astroturf junkscience site that has attempted to blame Rachel Carson for causing the resurgence. Nice. It’s like a hit-and-run driver who, instead of admitting responsibility for the accident, frames the person who tried to prevent the accident. Bastards.
Update: See follow-up post
October 15th, 2005 at 6:09 am
I was following you until your conclusion “So the people with significant responsibility for the resurgence in malaria were the chemical companies that stymied efforts to reduce the agricultural use of pesticides.”
I understand that there may have been a better way to do things, from the standpoint of the environment and eradication efforts, but your conclusion seems to stray far beyond that fact.
October 15th, 2005 at 10:34 am
Tim’s conclusion makes sense to me: by fighting attempts to reduce ag use of DDT, the chemical companies increased mosquito resistance to DDT that could be properly used for public health.
Here’s my question: while the enviros are acting appropriately now in being willing to consider indoor DDT use where appropriate, was there a time when the enviros opposed such a use in Third World countries? I think Tim may have covered this elsewhere, but I’m not sure.
October 15th, 2005 at 5:21 pm
Yes, prior to around 2000 when the international treaty banning persistent insecticides was beign negotiated some major green groups initially lobbied for its inclusion.
THey all, so far as I know, reversed their position prior to the treaty being completed and sorted a continuing exemption for public health use.
All: While the number of malaria deaths world-wide seems somewhat uncertain it appears to be around 1 million to 1.5 million.
If the lower figure is correct, then it’s impossible for the ban to have cost 50 million lives and even if the uppoer figure is correct you have to assume DDT would have prevented around 95% of malaira deaths to reach that figure.
October 16th, 2005 at 1:16 am
Ian is right, by the way; IIRC the junkscience.com counter operates on the implicit assumption that every single death from malaria is one that would have been prevented if the (non-existent) “DDT ban” had not been in place.
October 16th, 2005 at 2:23 am
Well done Tim. This whole DDT saga is worthy of book and I reckon you are well qualified to write it.
October 16th, 2005 at 7:12 am
Tim, that’s a fine blog post. Well done, sir. That’s just a fine piece of writing, period.
D
October 16th, 2005 at 8:59 am
[…] Tim Lambert has done very good work over the years keeping people honest on the John Lott “More Guns, Less Crime” thesis and on the Lancet study. However, his work on the strange subculture of DDT loons also deserves a bit of publicity. […]
October 16th, 2005 at 10:04 am
In amplification to Ian’s comment in #3, I know that the specific case of the World Wildlife Fund, his chronology is absolutely correct with one important clarification: Even before WWF changed their stance, they were not pushing for an immediate ban on DDT in the POP (persistent organic pollutant) treaty negotiations. What they were pushing for was a definite future date for ending its use. They argued that this was necessary in order to encourage the development and desemination of alternatives. However, at some point in the negotiations, they changed their position and agreed to not having any phase-out date.
October 16th, 2005 at 4:41 pm
There’s actually a Green crime in progress that has the potential to be quite a contender. That’s Greenpeace stonewalling, sabotage and misinformation about vitamin A enhanced Rice (Golden rice). 6000 deaths a day result from vit A deficiency triggered infectious disease in the third world. Golden rice, could perhaps impact on some 30-50 % of these. Greens have already caused significant delays. lets say 2 years x365×1000= quite a lot. Then there’s Golden cassava, Golden banana, Golden Sorghum.
Hmmm.
Lets move on to interferance with GM food aid acceptance in Africa. Hmmm.
Maybe better get back to the actual harm caused by Green anti-DDT mindset demonising DDT and delaying and impeding DDT house spraying, discussed at Quiggin , affecting maybe only thousands of lives, but still an issue.
Also discuss the harm from demonising corporations.Whats good for the goose is good for the gander
October 16th, 2005 at 6:39 pm
Given your misrepresentations about DDT in your comment d, I’m discounting 100% your claims about golden rice and GM foods.
October 16th, 2005 at 7:08 pm
Heh, completely an unimpressive early study done by those withought a clue. To be nice, we should forget about one of the authors demonstrated (nevermind, I feel not going there)
to have exxagerated and lied.
Honestly, anyone that;s gonna go and blame someone else is obviously a faggot habit…
October 16th, 2005 at 7:42 pm
Honestly, anyone that;s gonna go and blame someone else is obviously a faggot habit…
You talking about Andrew Kenny or Ron Bailey?
October 16th, 2005 at 7:50 pm
Shorter cs: the study is wrong because I say so.
October 16th, 2005 at 10:14 pm
Well Tim you dont really impress by discounting my comments but you’ll completely lose credibility if you discount modern published peer reviewed papers in Nature Medicine.
I’d really like to get your response to the disaster in South America where there were definitely many unnnecessary deaths caused by de facto bans on DDT , and its quite clear if you read the relevant papers that the old India evidence you mentioned is irrelevant.
The problem was caused by phasing out of house spraying in the mid 80s in several South American countries.
Worst crime ever no. Only many hundreds of thousands of cases involved. Moral responsibility: the overstated response to DDT by Green activists. The data are presented in Nature Medicine Vol 6 No 7, July 2000 p729 by Amir Attaran, Donald Roberts and others,
October 16th, 2005 at 10:35 pm
To add more to the missing parts of your story, Tim, here one more paper that contradicts your interpretation.
DR Roberts et al Lancet (2000) Vol 356 Issue 9226, page 330.
They state that resistance is not a major barrier to continued use of DDT. They also mention have epidemics were triggered by discontinuation of DDT use in house spraying.
BTW - you dont explain how I have misinterpreted DDT evence in a previous post.
October 16th, 2005 at 11:00 pm
d, in the Lancet paper by Roberts et al that you cite, Roberts writes:
This is misleading, as I explained here. Sri Lanka suspended spraying 1964 because there were so few cases. They resume spraying when there was an epidemic. Which DDT failed to control because of resistance. They didn’t get malaria under control until they switched to malathion.
And why are 100 million cases of malaria in India caused by the agricultural use of DDT irrelevant? Is it because you can’t blame the greens for them?
October 16th, 2005 at 11:17 pm
Maybe I’m reading Fig.2 incorrectly but it seems to show that there were over 30 million cases of Malaria in India in 1977. The best I can work out, there were actually “only” 6.47 million cases in the peak year of 1976.
Further, there’s this from WHO regarding malaria resurgence in India:
It seems there’s more – and less – to this story than Chapin and Wasserstrom tell us.
October 17th, 2005 at 1:03 am
With malaria there can be a confusion between the number of infected people and the number of malaria crises per year, eg the number of times anyone is sick. Perhaps this is what happened
October 17th, 2005 at 1:03 am
I think the 6.47 million cases are just those confirmed by a blood test, but I’ll check with WHO statistics in the library tomorrow.
October 17th, 2005 at 4:52 am
slickdpdx
Who else is reponsible than a consortium of 25 chemical industry reps (ICP)- so called expert consultants with axes to grind, that advised the U.N.’s FAO.
Reread the previous paragraph, particularly the last sentence.
“in June 1978, the current director general of FAO, Eduard Saoumi, finally expelled ICP from his agency[100].”
Pretty unambiguous and doesn’t seem to me to stray at all…quite the contrary…it is the fact, since the chems were the only reps on the ICP.
October 17th, 2005 at 6:37 am
Tim, my irrelevancy comment is based on the mechanisms explained by Attaran et al. Effectiveness of DDT in indoor spraying similar to that desribed in the recent BBC reort on Africa. It occurs because it makes the mosquitoes stay away. It is effective EVEN WITH resistant mosquitoes. Besides that, its STILL effective in India eg see the 2005 papers below for instance.
I’m still interested in your responses to the Attaran and Roberts Papers. Attaran describe a cumulative 12,000,000 cases in South America up to 1997. The death rate in about 3%. from this I would put global deaths from restictions to DDDT use in houses at about 500,000, so you are right, its not the worst crime of the 20th century, but not something any responsible person would try to justify or defend once they realise the circumstances.
: J Vector Borne Dis. 2005 Jun;42(2):54-60.
Impact of DDT spraying on malaria transmission in Bareilly District, Uttar
Pradesh, India.
Sharma SN, Shukla RP, Raghavendra K, Subbarao SK.
Malaria Research Centre Field Station, Inderjeet Garden, Bhotia Parao, Haldwani,
“>k_guna@yahoo.comDistrict Nainital, Uttaranchal, India. ” title=”mailto:k_guna@yahoo.com
This study from two districts of Orissa State which are endemic for Plasmodium
falciparum transmitted by Anopheles fluviatilis and A. culicifacies investigated
the impact of dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) indoor residual spraying,
in view of the ongoing discussion on phasing out DDT in India. Based on their
high annual parasite incidence and logistical considerations, 26 villages in
Malkangiri and 28 in Koraput district were selected for DDT spraying. For
comparison, six and four unsprayed villages were chosen from the same districts.
In each district, the prevalence of malaria infection and incidence of malaria
fever, indoor resting density and parous rate of the vectors, and their
susceptibility to DDT were monitored in six and three villages selected randomly
from the sprayed and unsprayed groups respectively. Anopheles fluviatilis was
susceptible to DDT while A. culicifacies was resistant. DDT residual spraying
with 1 g/m(2), was carried out in October-November 2001. Spraying 74-86% of
human dwellings and 100% of cattle sheds brought down the indoor resting density
of A. fluviatilis by 93-95%. This was associated with a significant reduction of
incidence of malaria fever as well as prevalence of malaria infection from
November to February in both districts. The spraying also seemed to impact on
vector longevity, and a residual effect of DDT on the sprayed walls was observed
up to 10-12 weeks despite re-plastering. Hence DDT spraying can still be an
effective tool for controlling fluviatilis-transmitted malaria. Although this
species is exophilic, its nocturnal resting behaviour facilitates its contact
with the sprayed surfaces. DDT is still useful for residual spraying in India,
particularly in areas where the vectors are endophilic and not resistant.
PMID: 15679559 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
October 17th, 2005 at 6:50 am
I certainly DONT regard malaria problems caused by excessive use of DDT in India irrelevant: but why do you imply that I said that? Neither do I accept the conclusion that agricultural used “caused” as many as you claim, if you think awahile youll realise thats full of contradictions, as alternatives are better, and its still efective in houses. Banning of Agricultural use was fully justified, but discouragement to house hold spraying is not. Discontinuation of household spraying as documented by Attaran did occur and HAS CAUSED many deaths, probably numbering in the hundreds of thousands. That a truth that you dont seem to acknowledge, and its a pity.
October 17th, 2005 at 8:10 am
Here are the exact remarks by Attaran et al in Nature Medicine 2000 that pin point what Green propaganda IS IN FACT responsible for - institutional barriers to DDT use in house spraying programs by various forms of discouragement displayed by NGOs such as WHO. This remark and others provide evidence that show, Tim, that your HOAX claim is incorrect. The presence of such barriers opens up any exaggeration of DDT harm to moral scrutiny.
There is in fact “de facto DDT ban” that needs to be addressed honestly, and not submerged in mockery of overstatements made by reporters, and it is a ban created by Green excess.
The reponsible course iof action I would have expected after discovery of adverse condequences of anti-DDT demonisation would have been to immediately start active publicity of CAVEATs about DDT harm, and this corrective response would involve pro-active communication that NO HUMAN HARM by DDT has been proven, and that DDT has an impotant role still in house spraying.This would be similar to telling mothers that a particular vaccine has a low incidence of side effects- informed consent if you like.
To my knowledge, that has never occured and hence many people are still misinformed, including you too, Tim it seems. Its that moral failure that the Green lobby groups have to bear until they set the record straight.
Quote
African countries in particular
lack the resources to dispatch health experts to the treaty
negotiations, and although it provides financial assistance,
the United Nations Environment Programme has declined
to assist with this, or even to provide a translator when
French- and English-speaking diplomats meet to discuss
DDT. The resulting lack of knowledge suffocates debate. At
worst, threats are used, as Belize learned when the US
Agency for International Development demanded that it
stop using DDT.
Such arm-twisting is as lamentable as it is effective. Highly
indebted poor countries must of necessity rank poverty reduction
over environmental orthodoxy, and stimulating growth
and foreign investment will require nearly eliminating
malaria from economically productive zones. This is essential
for development in sub-Saharan Africa, where malaria subtracts
more than one percentage point off the gross domestic
product growth rate, for a compounded loss (since 1965) now
reaching up to $100 billion a year in foregone income32.
Seen in this way, the insistence to do without DDT is ‘ecocolonialism’
that can impoverish no less than the imperial
colonialism of the past did. Sub-Saharan Africa, which never
experienced much spraying of houses with DDT, should consider
starting this.
October 17th, 2005 at 10:18 am
More evidence to document the role of over-the top anti-DDT activism in causing harm; this time from an African review.
The science has moved on far Tim, from India in the 70s.
Trop Med Int Health. 2004 Aug;9(8):846-56. Related Articles, Links
Historical review of malarial control in southern African with emphasis on the use of indoor residual house-spraying.
Mabaso ML, Sharp B, Lengeler C.
Indoor residual house-spraying (IRS) mainly with dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was the principal method by which malaria was eradicated or greatly reduced in many countries in the world between the 1940s and 1960s. In sub-Saharan Africa early malarial eradication pilot projects also showed that malaria is highly responsive to vector control by IRS but transmission could not be interrupted in the endemic tropical and lowland areas. As a result IRS was not taken to scale in most endemic areas of the continent with the exception of southern Africa and some island countries such as Reunion, Mayotte, Zanzibar, Cape Verde and Sao Tome. In southern Africa large-scale malarial control operations based on IRS with DDT and benzene hexachloride (BHC) were initiated in a number of countries to varying degrees. The objective of this review was to investigate the malarial situation before and after the introduction of indoor residual insecticide spraying in South Africa, Swaziland, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique using historical malarial data and related information collected from National Malaria Control Programmes, national archives and libraries, as well as academic institutions in the respective countries. Immediately after the inception of IRS with insecticides, dramatic reductions in malaria and its vectors were recorded. Countries that developed National Malaria Control Programmes during this phase and had built up human and organizational resources made significant advances towards malarial control. Malaria was reduced from hyper- to meso-endemicity and from meso- to hypo-endemicity and in certain instances to complete eradication. Data are presented on the effectiveness of IRS as a malarial control tool in six southern African countries. Recent trends in and challenges to malarial control in the region are also discussed.
Table 2 summarizes the start of IRS programmes in the region and changes in residual insecticides applied over time. The first trial testing of the residual application of insecticides for malarial control in southern Africa was carried out in 1931 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa and by 1932 a widespread residual house-spraying programme using pyrethrum was undertaken. In 1946, DDT replaced pyrethrum as the insecticide of choice (Sharp et al. 1988; le Sueur et al. 1993). In 1956, malaria became a notifiable disease, total coverage of all malarial areas was achieved for the first time in 1958, and by 1970 South Africa had a well-structured malarial control programme (Sharp & le Sueur 1996). In 1996, the pyrethroid deltamethrin was introduced for IRS in line with international trends to replace DDT. Subsequently, A. funestus, which had disappeared since the 1950s re-emerged in 2000 and was shown to be pyrethroid-resistant (Hargreaves et al. 2000). As a result, national policy reverted to the use of DDT, and surveillance has since indicated that A. funestus has again disappeared (Ministry of Health 2003).
In Swaziland, the malarial control programme was launched in 1945. Residual indoor spraying with DDT was initiated on a limited scale in 1947 (Mastbaum 1955). By 1950, coverage of all malarial areas was achieved. During the 1951-52 transmission season, BHC was introduced due to a shortage of DDT. From 1955-56, the efficacy of dieldrin vs. BHC was evaluated and no significant difference was found in the vector population density and number of malarial cases in areas sprayed with the two insecticides. However, dieldrin was discontinued due to higher cost (Mastbaum 1956, 1957a). Focal spraying, partly with BHC and partly with DDT, was carried out in the 1960s (Delfini 1969). From the 1980s, all inhabited structures in malarial areas were sprayed with DDT and later with synthetic pryrethroids (cyfluthrin) in houses with painted walls.
In Botswana, the National Malaria Control Programme was initiated in 1974. However, malarial interventions including spraying of human habitations have been reported as far back as the mid-1940s (Mastbaum 1944). In the 1950s, indoor house-spraying with DDT became the main vector control method (Freedman 1953). DDT remained the insecticide choice until 1971 when Fenitrothion was tried but abandoned again in 1972 because of low efficacy (Chayajabera et al. 1975). In 1973, residual spraying with DDT in the malarial districts of Ngamiland, Chobe and Francistown resumed, and in the 1980s a comprehensive vector control programme was organized which led to improved spraying coverage. In 1998, Botswana stopped the use of DDT and introduced pyrethroids (deltamethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin) as alternative insecticides as a consequence of a lack of availability of good quality DDT (Ministry of Health 1999).
In Namibia, residual spraying with DDT was first carried out in 1965. However, it was only in the 1970s that full coverage of the malarial regions (Ovambo, Kavango and Caprivi) was achieved (Hansford 1990). In 1991, a comprehensive malarial control programme was launched under the auspices of the NVDCP within the Ministry of Health and Social Services. To date residual spraying with DDT is being done in traditional housing, with carbamates (bendiocarb) applied only in western-type housing.
In Zimbabwe, indoor house-spraying pilot projects with DDT began as far back as 1945. A large-scale house-spraying programme was initiated in 1949 (Alves & Blair 1953, 1955). Spraying operations were later extended to other parts of the country as part of a ‘barrier’ spraying programme to prevent epidemics and to limit the spread to malaria-free areas. These operations continued until the late 1970s and after 1980 the malarial control programme was reviewed with the aim of reducing morbidity and mortality rather than only preventing epidemics (Taylor & Mutambu 1986). In 1988, DDT was replaced by deltamethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin due to the international lobby against persistent organic pollutants (Freeman 1995).
In Mozambique, residual house-spraying with DDT and BHC was first introduced in 1946 in the southern part of the country in the semi-urban area of Maputo city and in the rural area of the Limpopo Valley (Soeiro 1956; Ferreira 1958). Between 1960 and 1969, residual spraying with DDT was carried out in southern Mozambique (Maputo region) as part of the malarial eradication experiment (Schwalbach & de la Maza 1985). The escalation of civil war in the late 1970s led to a complete breakdown of malarial control measures. Following the cessation of hostilities in the 1990s, IRS mostly with lambdacyhalothrin and partly with deltamethrin was re-introduced, but only in suburban areas of most provincial capitals (Barreto 1996). In 2000, IRS with carbamates (bendiocarb) was re-introduced in the rural parts of Maputo province as part of the Lubombo Spatial Development Initiative (LSDI), a trilateral agreement among Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa aimed at protecting communities against malaria in the Lubombo region in order to create a suitable environment for economic development and promotion of eco-tourism (Sharp et al. 2001).
October 17th, 2005 at 3:54 pm
I don’t know about the specific figures d. quotes for Vitamin D deficiency deaths but he is correct in saying that the major green groups have been guilty of serious misrepresentation in attempting to make their case against Golden Rice. (Based on my own experience with such groups i suspect this is due to ignorance rather than delibetrate deceit.)
Specifically, they’ll argue that you’d need to eat several kiloes of golden rice per day to meet your daily Vitamin D requirement.
This may be true but is only relevant if you are ONLY eating golden rice.
If golden rice is substituted for ordinary rice in a mixed diet it may provide a significant part of the daily Vitamin D requirement, enough in many cases to prevent acute deficiency–related diseases.
October 17th, 2005 at 4:40 pm
“Ian is right, by the way; IIRC the junkscience.com counter operates on the implicit assumption that every single death from malaria is one that would have been prevented if the (non-existent) “DDT ban” had not been in place.”
And that the death rate jumped from insignificant to 2 million per year the instant the nonexistant ban was non-signed.
October 17th, 2005 at 4:49 pm
“I certainly DONT regard malaria problems caused by excessive use of DDT in India irrelevant: but why do you imply that I said that? Neither do I accept the conclusion that agricultural used “caused” as many as you claim, if you think awahile youll realise thats full of contradictions, as alternatives are better, and its still efective in houses. Banning of Agricultural use was fully justified, but discouragement to house hold spraying is not. Discontinuation of household spraying as documented by Attaran did occur and HAS CAUSED many deaths, probably numbering in the hundreds of thousands. That a truth that you dont seem to acknowledge, and its a pity.”
Oscillating goalposts; “DDT ban” seems to morph between documented ban on huge amounts of agricultural spraying, which ban served to decrease the incidence of malaria, and vaguely defined unwillingness to use DDT to fight disease by persons unspecified, because of undocumented sympathetic effects of agricultural ban by mechanisms unspecified; except in the various places where DDT use to fight disease continued in the absence of agricultural use, for reasons unknown and unquestioned.
October 17th, 2005 at 4:55 pm
I hardly think this is the crime of the century; that would have to be the millions of unnecessary deaths due to fire, caused by the asbestos ban put forward by the unthinking environazis and their ilk. Using my randomly exponentiating Immolation Death Clock, I can show that the number of deaths attritutable to this asbestos ban is in fact larger than the entire population of the earh, thus making the environazis the worst mass murderers in the history of the universe, including the disguised lizard men who secretly rule our planet.
October 17th, 2005 at 5:39 pm
The following is an excerpt from a summary of Sharma, V.P. Environmental management in malaria control in India. In Malaria: waiting for the vaccine. Targett, GAT. Ed. England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1991 from Pesticide Action Network North America:
So, it seems that linking increased DDT use to increased malaria is overly simplistic.
October 17th, 2005 at 6:25 pm
Similar time tabling of events to those of #29 are described by Attaran et al 2000 for South American malaria. So many aspects of Tim’s HOAX claims, and about insect resistance from agriculture being the deciding issue are falling apart from the evidence of recent posts. Insect resistance is not an absolute problem in several regions, and insect resistance doesn’t prevent DDT from being effective in house spraying due to its repellancy effect;alson recent reports show several public health research groups are revalidating the effectiveness of DDT in house spraying 9eg in India).
In short, about the only part of Tim Lambert’s DDT proposition I accept is that junkscience/sensationalist journos may exaggerating the total numbers numbers, but before I accept even that I would want to do more careful data collection myself. My current personal estimate of say 300,000 to 1 million deaths caused by premature cessation of DDT spraying in houses may be too low. A more accurate estimate requires integration of numbers over many different countries for long periods of time.
October 17th, 2005 at 7:05 pm
d: Your tone indicates that you’re making some kind of crushing point against Tim’s analysis, but that point eludes me, since most of your quoted statements (particularly from post #24) seem to be consistent with or support his views. Those that don’t, for instance your suggestion of a lot of deaths, don’t appear to have much evidence supporting them.
Your argument seems to be (and maybe I’m misunderstanding) that since house spraying with DDT works in a good many places (those where wall staining and resistance are not issues, for instance), it ought to work everywhere. Similarly you seem to conclude that because some aid agencies have on occasion discouraged DDT in some places, almost every aid agency has invariably discouraged DDT everywhere. I’m somewhat dubious about your apparent chain of reasoning in both of these instances, but perhaps my view of your argument is misconstrued.
Perhaps you could try a short summary of why the material in #24 is relevant?
October 17th, 2005 at 8:03 pm
patrick;
Its a pity my tone gave that impression patrick. I’m merely expressing my actual opinion of Tim’ s argument, which at first I had though had more substance than I now do after checking the published science to refress my memory.
Sorry if you can’t see the point to my argument. It’s much easier to get the message over by Hyped up headlines but thats exactly what Tim’s against.
My basic point is that DDT use in house spraying has slowed down for little good reason with awful outcomes.Posts like 24# are to document FROM PEER REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE that anti-DDT rhetoric had a significant role in that slow down; as the outcome is many deaths its worth asking what caused that slow down. My reason for using this somewhat technical literature (which by tradition makes its ethical points in a very low-key fashion- hence it seems vague) is that Tim will probably dismiss any other source by saying it has a political basis.
Maybe you can answer this - why were the programs of DDT house spraying discontinued in Africa and South America if house spraying still worked to protect the inhabitants? Why has in taken so long to restart DDT spraying and find out it still works?
October 17th, 2005 at 8:19 pm
For example Patrick, Ted Lapkin in Quadrant 2003 provides a coherant and literate commentary that makes the same point I’m making, but I’m skeptical that Tim will take it seriously:
www.quadrant.org.au/php/a…detailslist.php?article_id=421
October 17th, 2005 at 11:33 pm
d, I’ve already commented on Lapkin here and on South Africa here. As usual, your claims do not hold up.
October 18th, 2005 at 1:01 am
d the articles about the DDT debate from right-wing columnists and think-tanks have three basic points: 1.DDT is a magic bullet that is needed stop malaria 2. the use of DDT has been stopped worldwide solely due to environmentalists 3. the imperialist and racist environmentalists are causing human suffering and death in the third world by imposing their radical agenda.
These claims are factually incorrect and are really just attempts to slander the right’s political opponents. IMO the authors of these articles are not just getting a complicated story wrong, they are intentionally lying.
d the articles you are citing do not disprove Tin Lambert’s position.
Robert’s piece in Nature Medicine is a letter to the editor about a treaty that was being negotiated and not a research article. The letter states that DDT can be effective but if only used carefully. The letter then claims environmentalists are trying to stop all the use of DDT but provides nothing to back up this assertion. In fact the enviro groups position is similar to Roberts own, limited careful use of DDT is acceptable but if there is a viable alternative it should be used.
The letter to the editor is here:
www.malaria.org/attaranna…
The Tropical Medicine and International Health Journal article you cite concludes that DDT is not a magic bullet but can be effective in some areas if used in a careful and limited way in the context of a larger anti-malaria program. It does not implicate environmentalists. The article is on-line here:
www.biology.missouri.edu/…
The Lancet article is also not a research article, it is an opinion letter about the negotiations of a treaty. It again gets the position of the enviro groups wrong. It also oversells the effectiveness of DDT. Roberts dismisses the negative ecological effects of DDT (again with little or no evidence), even though there is ample evidence of this and even the majority of the pro-DDT advocates in the scientific community acknowledge the ecological harm that widespread use of DDT can cause. The letter is here
www.malaria.org/ddtlancet…
October 18th, 2005 at 3:30 am
d: I can’t answer your questions, I truly don’t know the answers. My curiousity is to your answers to those questions.
In post #24, there’s only one reference to pressure from international lobbying in a very long piece. Otherwise, it seems a pretty standard story of government in action, albeit in a resource starved and occasionally war torn area, where people don’t want brown stains on their freshly painted walls. My reading of your post #24 is that people have started and stopped using DDT for a whole variety of reasons, and that pressure from environment groups or donor agencies is pretty minor in the scheme of things.
October 18th, 2005 at 9:19 am
Actually I don;t think most of them ARE deliberately lying - they are simply hearing second- and third-had reports which happen to accord with their particular biases and failing ot check them before commenting publicly.
This isn’t an exclusively right-wing trait by any means - see much of the exaggerated angst over genetically engineered crops.
(North America has been conducting a rather large experiment with genetically modified soy, corn and cotton for the past decade or so, if the mroe dire predictions were credible you’d expect some of them to have coem to pass by now.)
October 18th, 2005 at 10:42 am
That would be the No True DDT Ban fallacy; i.e. No True DDT Ban would allow DDT to be used where effective against mosquitoes. But what about all the countries where DDT seems to be used without criticism, let alone “ban”? Well, that’s obviously not the True DDT Ban, which obviously only operates in areas where DDT is not being sprayed.
October 18th, 2005 at 11:19 am
Tim
See Frontpage.com on “Bring Back DDT” by Roger Bate
Roger Bate and Richard Tren, the co-founders of Africa Fighting Malaria, recently presented the following testimony to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
October 18th, 2005 at 11:51 am
Creeker– I assume this is the link that you meant to give: www.frontpagemag.com/Arti…
Africa Fighting Malaria is one of those astroturf groups…It is actually founded and run by a bunch of people who are very much into fighting governmental environmental and safety regulations, be they of the tobacco industry or on climate change, and not particularly knowledgeable about fighting malaria.
Bate and Tren testified before the Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee because the chair of that committee is the right-wing nutjob Senator James Inhofe. Roberts, who has also been mentioned in this thread, also gave some very deceptive testimony that you can watch here, epw.senate.gov/epwmultime… , in a panel that included author Michael Crichton (who has been elevated to the status of an expert on science and public policy by Inhofe because Inhofe loved “State of Fear”).
Yes, politics in America has really descended to the level of farce.
October 18th, 2005 at 1:24 pm
Joel Shore
Yes, that’s the link.
I came across Tim’s blog from Grist, so I’m trying to educate myself and separate fact from ideology, not an easy task.
So far what I’ve gleaned is:
1) IRS (indoor residual spraying) of DDT is endorsed by environmental groups and the scientific community as an effective malaria control strategy.
2)Agricultural use of DDT is not endorsed by these same groups.
3)DDT’s metabolites DDE and DDD which appear to contain a phenol group, which I’ve been told has been pr oven to be harmful to humans (my wife is a chemist), so I’m confused by statements by Bate and Tren that there is no peer reviewed proof of deleterious human effects. A lot of stuff is found in fatty tissues and mother’s milk (PCB’s, too) and would fall under the precautionary principle if it were being absorbed in great quantities, so banning wholesale agricultural use should work.
4) There’s been a huge resurgence of some raptors (in our area, osprey or fish hawks),and non-raptors (passarines?), like bluebirds, which I thought was due to the diminished use of DDT, but I haven’t talked the the Audubon Society on this. I see some think the Audubon Society and Ruckleshouse were perpetrating a scam of some sort, and I guess these birds just came back on their own… who knows.
The bottom line, IMHO, is that if controlled use of small amounts of DDT for IRS (so it doesn’t get into the food of the occupants) works to save human lives and a ban on agricultural use saves wildlife (and human life in the long term) , I’m for it, and I’m wondering why we don’t just do it worldwide until something cheaper and better comes along, and stop the bickering.
October 18th, 2005 at 3:59 pm
I’m confused by statements by Bate and Tren that there is no peer reviewed proof of deleterious human effects.
Ahhhh…yes, you suspect you see tendention.
DDE’ is a breakdown product of DDT - there are deleterious effects of DDE’, but few if any directly from DDT. So it is narrowly true about deleterious effects from DDT.
But it is mendacious when omitting effects from DDE’.
…I’m for it, and I’m wondering why we don’t just do it worldwide until something cheaper and better comes along, and stop the bickering…
My fallback is: money AND making greens look bad - two birds with one stone!
Best,
D
October 18th, 2005 at 9:01 pm
As near as I can work out, the majority of people posting here actually agree on this. (when we aren’t berating each other)
It may be that in some areas (Congo and Somalia come to mind) the government infrastructure to run IRS programs simply doesn’t exist and netting is a more practical alternative.
IIRC too, the South Africans use DDT for IRS on traditional housing but another insecticide for western-style housing.
So there may be some practical limitations - but money definitely shouldn’t be one of them.
October 19th, 2005 at 2:20 am
“‘The bottom line, IMHO, is that if controlled use of small amounts of DDT for IRS (so it doesn’t get into the food of the occupants) works to save human lives and a ban on agricultural use saves wildlife (and human life in the long term), I’m for it’
As near as I can work out, the majority of people posting here actually agree on this. (when we aren’t berating each other)”
But it does seem that there is a significant minority who implicitly don’t so much care about the above one way or the other, are primarily interested in attacking environmentalism (and the left in general), and are not in fact particularly in favor of the ban on agricultural use, whether it saves wildlife and/or human life or not.
October 19th, 2005 at 7:24 am
I got suspcious reading about this a while back.
It turns out a lot of the guys plugging this meme in, frex, conservative Catholic newspapers like the Register - were Olin Foundation beneficiaries.
Guess what Olin used to make and sell in the US…
Neoconned! Entering the Matrix
October 19th, 2005 at 8:07 am
But it does seem that there is a significant minority who implicitly don’t so much care about the above one way or the other, are primarily interested in attacking environmentalism (and the left in general), and are not in fact particularly in favor of the ban on agricultural use, whether it saves wildlife and/or human life or not.
Yes.
Best,
D
October 19th, 2005 at 9:02 am
41
:1) IRS (indoor residual spraying) of DDT is endorsed by environmental groups and the scientific community as an effective malaria control strategy.
2)Agricultural use of DDT is not endorsed by these same groups.
3)DDT’s metabolites DDE and DDD which appear to contain a phenol group, which I’ve been told has been pr oven to be harmful to humans (my wife is a chemist), so I’m confused by statements by Bate and Tren that there is no peer reviewed proof of deleterious human effects. A lot of stuff is found in fatty tissues and mother’s milk (PCB’s, too) and would fall under the precautionary principle if it were being absorbed in great quantities, so banning wholesale agricultural use should work.
Yes, I am aware that there are claims about DEE and pseudo hormonal effects. Yes there is an association between low birth rate and DDT exposure to mothers, but association is not cause and DDT may be a proxy for something else, like poverty and malnutrition.
Should we ignore them: NO, but should we ignore the risks of preventinfg sensible use DDT use ABSOLUTELY NOT because the consequences of that are very directly tragic.
4) There’s been a huge resurgence of some raptors (in our area, osprey or fish hawks),and non-raptors (passarines?), like bluebirds, which I thought was due to the diminished use of DDT, but I haven’t talked the the Audubon Society on this. I see some think the Audubon Society and Ruckleshouse were perpetrating a scam of some sort, and I guess these birds just came back on their own… who knows.
The bottom line, IMHO, is that if controlled use of small amounts of DDT for IRS (so it doesn’t get into the food of the occupants) works to save human lives and a ban on agricultural use saves wildlife (and human life in the long term) , I’m for it, and I’m wondering why we don’t just do it worldwide until something cheaper and better comes along, and stop the bickering.
October 19th, 2005 at 9:24 am
“d, I’ve already commented on Lapkin here and on South Africa here. As usual, your claims do not hold up.”
October 19th, 2005 at 10:18 am
Constant use of Astroturf labels to deal with arguments is a bit of a problem in itself as are all labelling ploys - evolutionist, leftist, right-winger, reductionist, Scientistic [spelling!] … Astroturf organisations are set up by Green lobby groups as well: there are at least three operating in Australia. The political purpose of the Astroturf is to allow extreme statements and actions to be made, but denied if necessary. Its a defense against ad hominem attacks, and reflex ad hominem responsed are extremly common in the Green lobby groups. At the end of the day, you have to ignore ad hominem arguments, apart from pointing out when they are made, and get on with looking at the evidence and its reliability. That’s hard work but the only way out.
As far as the peer review, yes, several of the medical citations I gave are not strictly peer reviewed but even Letters to the Editor and policy comments in journals like Lancet are rigidly controlled. Editorially reviewed might be accurate. Also medicine is not only science - it touches on policy and judgement, so there is a place for valuing those types of article too. At least a degree of competency is assured.
October 19th, 2005 at 1:42 pm
“The bottom line, IMHO, is that if controlled use of small amounts of DDT for IRS (so it doesn’t get into the food of the occupants) works to save human lives and a ban on agricultural use saves wildlife (and human life in the long term) , I’m for it, and I’m wondering why we don’t just do it worldwide until something cheaper and better comes along, and stop the bickering.”
Err, I think that’s what “we” are doing. As near as I can figure, the complaint seems to be that everybody all over the world isn’t spraying DDT all over their houses, just to be safe.
Are there places where DDT is not being sprayed where it would help? Undoubtedly. As there are undoubtedly places where DDT is being sprayed with no positive benefit; places where other insecticides are not being sprayed where they would help, places where malaria medication is not being sufficiently utilized, etc. etc. etc.
If Uganda, for instance, wants to spray DDT, they can do so. If the problem is that people will not then buy their vegetables unless they have been certified DDT free, I think the answer would be to check the damn vegetables, rather than make consumption of unchecked Ugandan vegetables compulsory. Most citizens in first world countries would be in favor of testing imported produce for pesticides in general, and would be shocked to find out how often that doesn’t happen. If the cash to do the testing is the issue, perhaps the concerned industrial giants can divert some of the money used to fund the astroturf organizations to cover the bill. Similarly for the argument that other pesticides are too expensive, and/or that USAID et al won’t fund DDT, despite their statement on their website that they do; these are the same outfits who opposed government-funded charity in the first place, in favor of private charity.
October 19th, 2005 at 5:03 pm
d, the Attaran paper is arguing against a ban on DDT. DDT was not banned so environmentalist pressure didn’t stop anyone from using. I’ve looked at the claim that the WHO doesn’t support DDT spraying. It’s just not true and I have links to the documents that disprove it in an earlier post. Similarly claims that USAID or the World Bank or the Global Fund don’t support DDT use are also untrue.
The sum total of this environmental pressure is that some aid agencies don’t want to fund DDT. And the result of this was that in Mozambique they used Bendiocarb. And guess what? They reduced malaria by 67%. You would think that would shut up the AFM crew, but no, it gets cited both as an example of green perfidy (”They won’t fund DDT”) AND as an example of the effectiveness of DDT (”residual spraying with mumble reduced malaria by 67%”)
October 19th, 2005 at 10:46 pm
Tim,
Im well aware that Attaran is arguing agaist a ban, as he was the main reason why the formal ban originally intended at Joburg did not occur in its original form because he wrote articles in several key journals, including BMJ at the time arguing the case, plus organising protests by pro DDT scientists.
Thats not the pointI’m . Im trying to get your comments on data in Figure 1.
It basically shows that millions of cases followed cessation of wall spraying about 1980, while they were prevented again in the 90s in Ecuador when wall spraying was reintrodued.Before 1980 they were prevented despite the ocurrence of “resistance”. The sory is very different from India years ealier.
Quoting Attaran:
October 19th, 2005 at 11:04 pm
TIm
“DDT was not banned so environmentalist pressure didn’t stop anyone from using.”
Massive reductions in DDT house sprayings and the malaria epidemics they caused occured before the Joburg conference- see Attaran 2000. This shows that you dont need a formal ban for anti-DDT activism to influence policy; you can in fact have de facto bans and various indirect pressures such as threats to deny funding made by Scandinavian agencies.
Lets also not forget the very recent South African story - DDT use stopped, epidemic started, followed by reintoduction of DDT, epidemic halted, followed by recent BBC report taking about how they now take house spraying so seriously. Just who do you think pushed South Africa to discontinue DDT if as you say there was NO BAN?
October 20th, 2005 at 12:08 am
d, I’ve pointed you to my post on South Africa several times now. Why are you asking questions that I have already given you the answers to?
If you want to claim that the evil environmentalist stopped folks from spraying DDT then you have to provide actual evidence. There are, you know, many other reasons why spraying has been stopped or reduced. But you don’t care, you just want to bash environmentalists regardless of the evidence.
October 20th, 2005 at 12:34 am
“Just who do you think pushed South Africa to discontinue DDT if as you say there was NO BAN?”
Obviously, Evil People who don’t value Human Life.
October 20th, 2005 at 12:36 am
“This shows that you dont need a formal ban for anti-DDT activism to influence policy;”
So, it’s not even the “DDT Ban” that’s the problem, it’s any “anti-DDT activism”? Great Scott, this has morphed into the Gun Debate.
October 20th, 2005 at 7:18 am
Your recent comments continueing to speculate about my motives are actually wrong.
More importantly, you have repeatedly not yet addressed the data in figure one on Attaram, which show that
after DDT resisistance was widely spread
for a period (1970s) house spraying was at a high level and malaria was absent
then DDT house spraying dropped,
followed by resurgence of malaria (late 80s), 12 million cumulative cases in 90s
when in 1990 in one country restored DDT,
malaria AGAIN came under control.
I note again in the 2005s at least two other reports confirm the effectiveness of house spraying.
During this 1970-80s period, leading up to Joberg, DDT demonising was part of a massive campaign by environmentalists groups to demonise DDT including much unproven speculation.
YET you STILL claim environmental activism has no cause to pause about consequential ethics.
The fact that you do not mention these data that contradict many of your conclusionsis extremely poor treatment of evidence.
October 20th, 2005 at 7:44 am
Z says
““This shows that you don’t need a formal ban for anti-DDT activism to influence policy;”
So, it’s not even the “DDT Ban” that’s the problem, it’s any “anti-DDT activism”? Great Scott, this has morphed into the Gun Debate.”
October 20th, 2005 at 9:29 am
almost right - you’re missing the mandatory racist slur: “… don’t value brown people’s lives”.
Never mind that the people involved in the decision-making were probably themselves “brown”.
The South African government is obviousdly incapable of making decisions on its own and sits around waiting for direction from the first passing white.
October 20th, 2005 at 10:17 am
d you keep bring using sources that don’t to support your claims. The Attaran 2000 opinion letter (you have stopped calling it Roberts 2000 but it is still the same article) in Nature Medicine is weak. Nature does have a much more open policy about commentary then research. This month Nature published a letter that criticized Nature’s coverage of the Katrina Hurricane in New Orleans and this letter claimed that the press in Europe is Marxist-leftist.
The original commentary is here
www.nature.com/cgi-taf/Dy…
It states that the use of DDT in developing countries “may now be ending” not that it has ended. It advocates IRS, and it claims that enviro’s are blocking IRS, but environmental groups are in fact not. Figure 1 you refer to, even the authors themselves say is only “correlation” that is “plausible”. The authors themselves don’t think that there is much scientific evidence for their conclusion. They also imply that house spraying discussed in figure 1 stopped because of the enviro’s but provide nothing to support this claim.
October 20th, 2005 at 10:20 am
Z and Ian
Wel not obcviously the implicastion you draw. The causes are probably unintentional, and posibly come from the best of intentions, but also could be caused by an attitude that sees every dissent in tems of the kind of imagined implications that you and z introduce.
So, definitely not obviously the nonsense you are imagine. However continued refusal to discuss the causes of a serious mistake thats cost the lives and health of millions is not a cause for rejoicing.
Let me make an analogy. Aboriginal children were removed from their families in the early years of the last century with the very best of intentions.? Do those best of intentions necessary justify the actions if the consequences were bad?
October 20th, 2005 at 10:37 am
Joseph no 60
Roberts 2000 is yet another paper:
DDT house spraying and re-emerging malaria
D R Roberts; S Manguin; J Mouchet
The Lancet; Jul 22, 2000; 356, 9226; Health Module pg. 330
This stream started with a Nature paper,Chapin and Wassertrom. Are we to reject that “policy discussion” too because of Nature’s liberal attitudes to commentary? I think not.
“Agricultural production and malaria resurgence in Central America and India” by Georganne Chapin and Robert Wassertrom published in Nature Vol 293 17 Sep[t]ember 1981 pages 181–185″
October 20th, 2005 at 1:32 pm
I would like more data regarding Central and South America; most of the studies seem to come from Africa and Asia. But how much of a problem is it in the Americas, compared to Africa where it seems to be enormous? (not rhetorical question, I really don’t know).
October 20th, 2005 at 5:12 pm
www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vo…
South American Stats
This is one peer reviewed source of information via CDC EID journal
Malaria is reemerging in endemic-disease countries of South America. We examined the rate of real growth in annual parasite indexes (API) by adjusting APIs for all years to the annual blood examination rate of 1965 for each country. The standardized APIs calculated for Brazil, Peru, Guyana, and for 18 other malaria-endemic countries of the Americas presented a consistent pattern of low rates up through the late 1970s, followed by geometric growth in malaria incidence in subsequent years. True growth in malaria incidence corresponds temporally with changes in global strategies for malaria control. Underlying the concordance of these events is a causal link between decreased spraying of homes with DDT and increased malaria; two regression models defining this link showed statistically significant negative relationships between APIs and house-spray rates. Separate analyses of data from 1993 to 1995 showed that countries that have recently discontinued their spray programs are reporting large increases in malaria incidence. Ecuador, which has increased use of DDT since 1993, is the only country reporting a large reduction (61%) in malaria rates since 1993. DDT use for malaria control and application of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be subjects of urgent national and international debate. We discuss the recent actions to ban DDT, the health costs of such a ban, perspectives on DDT use in agriculture versus malaria control, and costs versus benefits of DDT and alternative insecticides.
Eliminating DDT for Malaria Control
Countries are banning or reducing the use of DDT because of continuous international and national pressures against DDT (e.g., the International Pesticide Action Network is “…working to stop the production, sale, and use…” of DDT [14]) and aggressive marketing tactics of producers of more expensive alternative insecticides. It has become easier for political pressures to succeed given the global strategy to deemphasize use of the house-spray approach to malaria control. A recent agreement of the North American Commission on Environmental Cooperation for eliminating the production and use of DDT in Mexico within the next 10 years3 is the latest development in the campaign to eliminate DDT.
There is a cost in abandoning DDT for malaria control. This cost is seen in the results of malaria control programs from 1993 to 1995. We can get a uniform picture of events from 1993 to 1995 by standardizing malaria rates according to size of population at risk for malaria in each country (3,4). Since there were variations in this population variable for the 3 years, we took the population estimates for the midyear interval, 1994, as the basis for adjusting malaria rates for 1993 and 1995 (2). Each country was also characterized according to its reported use of DDT for malaria control in 1993 through 1995 (2-4).
As shown in Figure 7, countries that discontinued their house-spray programs reported large increases in malaria rates. Countries that reported low or reduced HSRs also reported increased malaria. Only Ecuador reported increased use of DDT and greatly reduced malaria rates.
The multifaceted issues of DDT use for malaria control (e.g., ecologic damage, human carcinogenicity, and pesticide resistance) and the applicability of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be the subject of intensive national and international debate. We are now facing the unprecedented event of eliminating, without meaningful debate, the most cost-effective chemical we have for the prevention of malaria. The health of hundreds of millions of persons in malaria-endemic countries should be given greater consideration before proceeding further with the present course of action
October 20th, 2005 at 6:59 pm
d.
Your posts are usually extremely clear and well-written.
Unfortunately message 61 is a long way from that - you might want to restate your point as I simply can’t follow what you’re saying.
If as I assume you’re saying that possible errors which led to the cessation of IRS with DDT should be investigated, I agree.
But considering that the South African government, entirely off its own bat, refused for several years to give anti-retroviral drugs to pregnant women with HIV despite urging to do so by virtually all NGOs and aid agencies, I’d say they’re quite capable of their own stuff-ups without the involvement of western environmentalists.
October 20th, 2005 at 8:44 pm
Sorry Ian for Lack of clarity in 61, I keep on forgetting the spell checker, and regret being unable to edit after posting. I may get back to you on that one.
In the meantime in response to another comment bu 63 I have been digging for good statistical data on South American malaria, and have confirmed some really good news - death rates for malaria are very much lower in South America than in Africa and elswhere, and treatments have improved dramatically in recent years.(The caution is that in remote areas some deaths might be missed, and the overall disease burden of ill heath is still unacceptably high.)
For best stats on S. American malaria
see Bremen, J. The ears of the hippopotamus: manifestations, determinants, and estimates of the malaria burden. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 64(1,2)S, 1-11 (2001).
(found via a great Nature Vol 415 7 February 2002 issue on malaria in a paper by Jeffrey Sachs)
Good stats are are also at the PAHO website
www.paho.org/english/hcp/…
Central and South America numbers from PAHO web site
Exposed population at high risk 9 million
Total Regional Cases of P. falciparum (the worst type)
270,000 (similar numbers in 1994 and in 2003)
Death rates have drastically reduced since 1993 and are much less than in Africa:
1994 Crude death rate 83 per million exposed
2003 Crude death rate 7.5 per million exposed
October 20th, 2005 at 11:28 pm
d you called the paper Roberts and Attratan, then just Attratan, OK.
Lets be more specific. You have called letters to the editor and policy editorials peer reviewed research and stated that they were reliable sources of information because they were peer reviewed research, when corrected you said it doesn’t matter because the standards are the same. The standards are not the same. Peer reviewed research has a higher standard for accuracy.
Second your major point of your comments seems to be about environmentalists banning DDT. #57 you write “demonising was part of a massive campaign by environmentalists groups to demonise DDT including much unproven speculation”. You are citing articles for support of this position. Some of the articles you are citing have implied that environmentalists are attempting to ban DDT but don’t offer any real proof. Others don’t say this at all.
You are also relying heavily on Roberts who by his own admission is on the scientific fringe on the use of DDT. The scientific consensus about DDT is that in some regions IRS using DDT in the context of a comprehensive anti-malaria program is indeed effective, but DDT is not necessary for control of malaria. DDT is not the miracle cure the Roberts seems to believe it is. The environmentalist position is that when there are viable alternatives that do not have DDT’s harmful side effects they should be used, but if DDT is the only effective option in disease control they do not oppose it.
October 21st, 2005 at 7:51 am
Malaria Still a Public Health Problem in the Americas
Washington, D.C., September 30, 2005 (PAHO)—Despite reductions in recent years, malaria still constitutes a public health problem in the Americas, according to a report presented at a ministerial-level meeting of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
The report notes that malaria transmission was eliminated from a number of territories, but is still reported in 21 of the Member States of PAHO. “It is estimated that 40 million persons live in areas of moderate and high risk, and approximately 1 million cases have been reported annually since 1987,” the report says.
The report was one of the agenda items for the 46th Meeting of the Directing Council, made up of the health ministers of the Americas, which is meeting this week in Washington.
At their meeting, the hemispheric health ministers were asked to continue their countries’ commitment to the 1998 Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Initiative and the internationally agreed-upon health-related development goals in the U.N. Millennium Declaration.
The report makes clear that there has been a reduction in the overall malaria incidence in recent years. But, it adds, “the disease still constitutes a public health problem in the Region with a disparity in the outcome of efforts in different countries related to a number of factors.” Among those factors the reports lists the following:
“There is a need for continued commitment to achieving the RBM Initiative and the internationally agreed-upon development goals, including those on malaria contained in the Millennium Declaration, preserving achievements in malaria control, and focusing on present and new challenges, including those related to communication, coordination and cooperation within the health and other sectors,” according to the report.
The report notes that in 2004 PAHO Member States indicated that of the 865 million inhabitants of the Americas, approximately 250 million live in areas at ecological risk of malaria transmission.
The report also shows that of the 21 PAHO Member States where malaria is endemic, 15 reported decreases in the absolute numbers of cases between 2000 and 2004 and that eight of them had decreases over 50%. However, six countries reported increases: Colombia (9%), Dominican Republic (94%), Guyana (20%), Panama (392%), Peru (23%) and Venezuela (57%).
October 21st, 2005 at 9:25 am
Re:the paper Roberts and Attaran, then just Attaran, OK.
Lets be more specific. You have called letters to the editor and policy editorials peer reviewed research and stated that they were reliable sources of information because they were peer reviewed research, when corrected you said it doesn’t matter because the standards are the same.
www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/pe…
and contains primary data analysis,and it indeed gives evidence of actions to stop DDT by environmentalist groups (eg PANUP) that Tim would have us believe never occured. I can post details from one more commentary in a professional journal, (The British Medical Journal, Attaran and Maharaj Vol 321 p1403 if you like) if you like, citing explicitly that environmentalist pressure triggered the cessation of DDT use in South Africa in 1996. (BMJ heading “Doctoring malaria badly: the global campaign to ban DDT.” Maharaj is a South African in the Department of Health in Pretoria.
Wouldn’t you think such a statement on the public record in one of the top three medical journals in the world has some basis in fact?
Second your major point of your comments seems to be about environmentalists banning DDT. #57 you write “demonising was part of a massive campaign by environmentalists groups to demonise DDT including much unproven speculation”. You are citing articles for support of this position. Some of the articles you are citing have implied that environmentalists are attempting to ban DDT but don’t offer any real proof.
You are also relying heavily on Roberts who by his own admission is on the scientific fringe on the use of DDT.
… but DDT is not necessary for control of malaria.
DDT is not the miracle cure the Roberts seems to believe it is.
The environmentalist position is that when there are viable alternatives that do not have DDT’s harmful side effects they should be used,
but if DDT is the only effective option in disease control they do not oppose it.
October 21st, 2005 at 12:08 pm
d, I’ve pointed you to my post about South Africa again and again but you keep making false claims about what happend there. How come?
October 21st, 2005 at 12:20 pm
Youll have to explain Tim your reasons for asserting my claims are false, and which of my comments you are particularly referring to, as I’m am not aware of any that are as you assert.
And Ill happily engage after I hear your explanation of DDT in South America
My views closely correspond to the opinions express in the BMJ and Nature Medicine by Attaran, and EID by Roberts.
Apart from that, I simply dissagree with you about non-influence of anti-DDT activists on DDT application
October 21st, 2005 at 1:02 pm
Looks like Fumento has made a fool of you again? When are you ever going to learn?
www.fumento.com/weblog/ar…
www.townhall.com/blogs/c-…
And when are you going to stop encouraging a policy of genocide against people who just happen to have darker skin than yours?
October 21st, 2005 at 1:57 pm
Fumento was advocating broad-acre sparaying back in January.
He now quotes an article on the continuing efficacy of IRS to support his position.
THe only people being made fools of here are those dumb enough to accept Fumento at face value.
October 22nd, 2005 at 2:32 am
d, have you read my post about South Africa?
October 22nd, 2005 at 4:43 am
d you keep confusing peer reviewed research with political commentary. The peer review standards are not the same. The editorials you cite claim that environmentalists are banning the use of DDT. They cite to a statement of one organization that would like to see DDT phased out and replaced with other pesticides. In the South African example they state that DDT use was stopped because of environmentalist but this is uncorroborated. There is no cite or footnote referring to any other source and no details are given. Because these are statements about the politics in editorials, the same strict standards for accuracy in scientific and medical research do not apply.
The “research” you cite to repeatedly, the graph from the Nature Medicine article, is by the author’s own admission only a “plausible correlation” between stopping the use of house spraying in South America and the increase in malaria. If this were submitted as a research article it would not be published. The authors imply that environmentalists stopped house spraying but do not openly say it and again offer no evidence for this claim.
You have written that Greenpeace has not changed its position about the use of DDT but the WWF has. Greenpeace and the WWF have had the same position: they would like to see DDT replaced but if disease control requires the use of DDT they do not oppose it. Recently the New York Times columnist Kristof contacted both Greenpeace and the WWF and he was surprised to hear that they do not oppose the careful use of DDT.
About Roberts credibility, he has admitted in testimony to the US Congress that the scientific community does not support his claims about DDT. He has been published (mostly editorials) but publishing does not necessarily mean acceptance.
Your claims about DDT being necessary are questionable. DDT’s main asset is that it is less expensive but not that it is better then other pesticides. The Tropical Medicine article you cited states that.
You also claim that the environmentalists are stopping the use of DDT until developing nations prove they can’t use something else this is again wrong.
d you keep bringing up how the incredibly powerful monolithic environmentalist cabal is imposing its iron will on the world. You are overstating the ability of the environmentalists.
October 22nd, 2005 at 6:13 am
“Looks like Fumento has made a fool of you again? When are you ever going to learn?”
Well, there is really no defense against some adolescent calling you names in public.
October 24th, 2005 at 10:30 am
First up, thanks for civilised, careful disagreement, with point highly relevant to those I made. Very refreshing to see it, because this type of discussion can lead to progress.
“d you keep confusing peer reviewed research with political commentary.”
In the South African example they state that DDT use was stopped because of environmentalist but this is uncorroborated.
The “research” you cite to repeatedly, the graph from the Nature Medicine article, is by the author’s own admission only a “plausible correlation” between stopping the use of house spraying in South America and the increase in malaria. If this were submitted as a research article it would not be published.
You have written that Greenpeace has not changed its position about the use of DDT but the WWF has. Greenpeace and the WWF have had the same position: they would like to see DDT replaced but if disease control requires the use of DDT they do not oppose it.
If it was in the lead up to Joburg I’d discount it: and it may just indicate he is honest under testimony. As far as implying that Roberts is an oddball, there are a long list of his other publications on medline pertaining to modern malariology. At the end of the day, numbers of critics don’t count a bit, only reliable evidence, and subsequent confirmation which I have cited 2005 examples.
SNIP
d you keep bringing up how the incredibly powerful monolithic environmentalist cabal is imposing its iron will on the world. You are overstating the ability of the environmentalists.
October 24th, 2005 at 10:34 am
Re 70 and subsequent Lambert posts:
“Youll have to explain Tim your reasons for asserting my claims are false, and which of my comments you are particularly referring to, as I’m am not aware of any that are as you assert. And Ill happily engage after I