Lott grossly misrepresents Kellermann’s study. He states that “they fail to report that in only 8 of these 444 homicide cases could it be established that the gun involved had been kept in the home.” Kellermann et al do indeed fail to report that, but that is because it is not true. They do note that in 8 out of a subset of 14 cases the police report stated that the gun involved had been kept in the home. Needless to say, 14 is not equal to 444. Lott goes on to claim that “all or virtually all the homicide victims were killed by weapons brought into their homes by intruders”. This claim is also false. Table 1 of Kellermann’s paper [11] shows that only 14% of the homicide victims were killed by intruders. My analysis of Kellermann’s data shows only 8% of the homicide victims were killed with guns by intruders.
Sam Kersh writes:
This does not give “you” free rein to create a 8/14ths ratio.
The 8/14 ratio does not necessarily apply to the whole group, but we can be absolutely certain that the ratio for the whole group is NOT 8/444.
And as you already know, only a mere 60 % of all the firearms homicides victims also owned a firearm… Kellermann claimed 93 percent, but that was either a math blunder or a falsehood. Unfortunately, neither of us can say which with certainty.
Well, there are Kellermann’s actual words on this matter:
An independent review of the data from a case-control study of gun ownership as a risk factor for homicide in the home, reported by my colleagues and me (Oct. 7, 1993, issue), (1) has identified an inaccuracy in our response to the letters to the editor about the study (Feb. 3, 1994, issue). (2) In the fourth paragraph of our response, we reported, “Ninety-three percent of the homicides involving firearms occurred in homes where a gun was kept, according to the proxy respondents.” What we should have said was that 93 percent of proxy respondents for victims of homicide involving firearms provided information about the presence or absence of a gun in the home. Sixty-two percent of this group reported that the victim lived in a home where one or more guns were kept, not 93 percent, as we stated in our reply.” source
Lambert muddies the water by stating, “… Table 1 of Kellermann’s paper [11] shows that only 14% of the homicide victims were killed by intruders. My analysis of Kellermann’s data shows only 8% of the homicide victims were killed with guns by intruders.”
If you actually read Table 1, found on page 1086, NEJM, Oct 7, 1993, you will find under ‘Relationship of offender to victum,’ the following:
Friend or acquaintance 130 31.0% Stranger 15 3.6% Unknow/unidentified 73 17.4% Other 6 1.4% total 53.4 percentNowhere in the table is the term “intruder” used nor does Lambert take the trouble to define his or Lott’s use of the word.
You could have looked in the dictionary…. An intruder is someone who enters without permission.
The relevant question in the codebook is: “Is there evidence of forced entry and/or entry without the victim’s consent?”
In 14% of the cases the answer was “yes”.
By no stretch of the imagination can this be called “all” or “virtually all”.